Winter is upon us, so it’s time to bring out the oversized scarf, the beanie, and generally rug up warm. Or is it? This winter, that might not be the case. If your idea of a perfect chilly season is cozy nights under a blanket, seeking out roaring fireplaces and a smattering of snow away from the slopes, then it’s bad news. The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has said winter 2021 is likely , including the capitals. It’s part of a warming trend that spanned the last two decades. But there is a surprise in the works. One of Australia’s most prominent has retreated to neutral, which means hot waters north of the country could have a much more significant impact. There could even be a risk of bushfires in some areas. Expect increased rainfall through the winter months – that’s excellent news for those in areas tthe regionsave suffered from prolonged drying.
Australia’s cold autumn
Looking back,in Australia since 2015. “Cool conditions would have been felt particularly keenly by , who recorded minimum temperatures one to two degrees below average,” BOM climatologist Dr. Lynette Bettio said. It was wet, too, with . “NSW had its second wettest March on record, with the extreme flooding late in the month,” she said. That means water storage is generally in good nick, with the Murray Darling basin holding 20 percent higher than . However, much of southern Australia missed the heaviest rains. In parts of Victoria, Tasmania, and , soil moisture levels are below average.
What’s leading to a wetter winter?
The La Nina climate driver, which helped drench much of the east, is nowin the rearview mirror. “Our climate drivers are currently neutral, meaning we’re not getting El Nino or La Nina bringing particularly dry nor particularly wet conditions to the continent,” Dr. Bettio said. Therefore, like warm waters off Australia’s north coast, other factors could have a much more significant effect than in a usual winter. “That could result in a wetter than average dry season across much of northern Australia, but as it is dry season, rainfall totals will not be high,” she said.
The moisture from the north could funnel its way down through the continent. June to August should see above-average rainfall across the, SA, Queensland, and NSW. Winter is usually the driest season of the year, away from tropical areas. More average conditions or even drier weather is a distinct possibility for Victoria, Tasmania, and away from the tropical north. Dr. Bettio said this was consistent with observations from the past 20 , which showed a trend towards drier than average conditions in Australia’s south during autumn and early winter. BOM data shows that excellent season rainfall has been declining in the southwest and southeast for 17 of the by about 12 percent.
But in the north, rainfall has increased. This is partly blamed on playing a role in drying out winters in the southeast,” Dr. James Goldie from the Monash University Communication Research Hub told news.com.au. “It’s not the only thing influencing our rainfall, but we should be prepared for more ahead.” A warm wet season in the NT has resulted in significant vegetation growth. That means there is an increased .. “Climate change is